{"id":1979,"date":"2026-05-05T08:45:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T08:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rjbarrett.redirectme.net\/?p=1979"},"modified":"2026-05-05T08:45:00","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T08:45:00","slug":"cities-are-rehearsing-for-deadly-heat-will-it-help-when-disaster-comes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rjbarrett.redirectme.net\/?p=1979","title":{"rendered":"Cities are rehearsing for deadly heat. Will it help when disaster comes?"},"content":{"rendered":"


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On a sunny Friday afternoon in October 2023, some 70 children filed into a cool, dark tunnel in the south of Paris to help the city rehearse for its increasingly hot future.<\/p>\n

The tunnel, part of the abandoned Petite Ceinture railway encircling the city, is always 64 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celcius), making it the perfect safe haven from the potentially lethal heat imagined outside. Once underground, each youngster was asked to simulate the effects of extreme temperatures that might become reality in their lifetimes. Some pretended to have been poisoned by food that spoiled during a power outage. Others faked the effects of carbon monoxide leaking from a faulty generator. Meanwhile, Red Cross workers scrambled to decide who to send to overwhelmed hospitals. Around them, dozens of others \u2014 fire fighters, city officials, teachers \u2014 did their best to simulate the chaos and cascading impacts a heat wave of unprecedented duration and intensity might force them to confront.<\/p>\n

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The officials who created the Paris at 50C exercise wanted children to participate because they will face the consequences of a warming world and because they ask so many questions. Crisotech<\/cite><\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

The exercise, called Paris at 50 degrees Celsius, was designed to imagine what might happen if the mercury hits 122 degrees F, something scientists warn is increasingly likely by 2100. It combined live drills and a tabletop exercise to help shape a plan to protect the city\u2019s 2 million people from that kind of heat. Once limited to a handful of cities, these exercises are spreading as local governments stress test health services, emergency response, and essential infrastructure before temperatures reach dangerous extremes.<\/p>\n

What Paris is rehearsing could soon confront cities across the continent. European governments are being urged to prepare for 5 to 6 degrees F (2.8 to 3.3 degrees C) of warming, a change that could push Paris toward dangerous summertime temperatures by the end of the century.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Such heat is a global threat. Modeling suggests more than 1.6 billion people in nearly 1,000 cities could regularly face perilous conditions within three decades. Heat waves are already straining hospitals, causing outages, and paralyzing transit. In the complex systems that make up a city, even small failures can lead to larger breakdowns.<\/p>\n

But as cities invest time and money into these exercises, one question remains: Do they actually improve preparedness?<\/p>\n

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It took P\u00e9n\u00e9lope Komit\u00e8s more than 18 months to prepare a drill that would last just two days. As Paris\u2019 deputy mayor in charge of resilience, she considers such planning essential. \u201cIt was very important for us to show people that heat waves are not just something we see on the TV, but something that can happen soon, and that we need to improve what we\u2019re going to do,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

To help inform the scenario, scientists at the \u00cele-de-France Regional Climate Change Expertise Group, which advises city leaders on climate risk, modeled what the future might look like. Other studies based on data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have largely confirmed their projection that temperatures could hit 122 degree F (50 degrees C) by the end of the century. For now, the city\u2019s record stands at 108.68 F (42.6 C), registered on July 25, 2019.<\/p>\n

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A temperature sign over a pharmacy in Paris, France, reads 47 degrees C (116 degrees F) during a heat wave in 2015.
Pierre Suu \/ Getty Images<\/cite><\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

The World Health Organization estimates that heat contributes to roughly half a million deaths worldwide each year. Symptoms can quickly escalate from fatigue to dehydration to heat stroke as the body loses its ability to cool itself. For older adults and people with heart or kidney disease, that strain can be fatal.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In Paris, much of the work of designing the simulation fell to Crisotech, a consultancy specializing in crisis exercises. It spent nine months working with the city to develop a dozen scenarios designed to anticipate where services would buckle, how agencies would work together, and which residents might be missed. The role-playing the children, from two different schools, participated in at two locations occurred on the first day; the second was dedicated to tabletop exercises among city officials and first responders.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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The simulations are designed to test a city\u2019s response to all the things that might happen during a prolonged heat wave, such as people experiencing heat stroke and other health impacts. Crisotech<\/cite><\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

\u201cThe objective was to anticipate all possible impacts of a heat dome across Paris, to consolidate the [preparedness] measures planned by the city in the event of an extreme heat wave, test new solutions, \u2026 and identify new actions to be implemented,\u201d said Komit\u00e8s.<\/p>\n

More than 100 organizations took part, from city agencies and emergency services to utilities and nonprofits. While other cities, including Melbourne, London, and Phoenix, have hosted similar workshops, Paris made the unprecedented decision to include citizens in the role-playing portion of the \u20ac200,000 ($236,000) event. The city held informal meetings to recruit volunteers and help residents visualize the scenario. Children were especially valuable participants, both because they will face the consequences of a warming world and because they ask so many questions, said Ziad Touat, the crisis management consultant who led the simulation for Crisotech.<\/p>\n

Komit\u00e8s also wanted to prepare Parisians for the day when all of this would unfold for real. That\u2019s important, she said, because the pandemic showed that well-informed communities respond to a crisis more effectively. If people recognize the symptoms of heat stroke, for example, or know when to find a cooling shelter, first responders can focus on the most vulnerable, Komit\u00e8s said.<\/p>\n

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Five years ago, these simulations were confined to a handful of cities in the U.S. and Europe. Now, cities around the world are getting interested, said Cassie Sunderland, managing director of climate solutions at C40, a global network of mayors focused on climate action.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Some of the sims are sprawling operations like the one in Paris; others are more modest tabletop exercises, or hybrids that combine interagency workshops with limited role-playing. All are meant to identify points of failure before a crisis does.<\/p>\n

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A huge generator provides power during an exercise designed to simulate the surge in electricity demand Paris might experience during a prolonged heatwave. Crisotech<\/cite><\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

Success is not measured by whether a drill runs smoothly, but rather, the opposite. The most valuable ones are realistic enough to force decisions, yet unpredictable enough to expose coordination problems and infrastructure failures. For example, engineers might be brought in to determine the temperature at which train tracks expand. \u201cImagine if you suddenly have a huge amount of people who need additional health care, but doctors and nurses can\u2019t get to the hospital because of transport failures,\u201d said Sunderland.<\/p>\n

The growth of these exercises reflects a broader concern that many cities are unprepared. \u201cSimulating extreme heat is really important,\u201d said Dr. Satchit Balsari, a professor of emergency medicine at Harvard Medical School. \u201cA lot of cities stop and make heat action plans, but they actually don\u2019t drill into how they are going to implement them, whether the funding for it exists, and if they actually have the know-how.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some scenarios can only be explored in a simulation, such as the question of cooling patients experiencing heatstroke. \u201cHow do you take a large human body and put it in ice? Is there a bucket that big?\u201d Balsari said. \u201cThe answer is no, so is it a body bag? Where do you get all this ice?\u201d What might appear simple on paper becomes a challenge unless tested.<\/p>\n

Simulations should also consider what measures are needed after the heat breaks, Balsari said. For instance, healthcare systems will need plans for addressing the long-term impacts like increased risk of chronic kidney disease. \u201cHave a final session that thinks about what the subsequent months look like,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\n Read Next<\/span><\/p>\n
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\n How to build a heat-resilient city\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n

Such challenges are compounded because most cities do not have someone responsible for crafting a unified response. A few, including Athens, Greece; Melbourne, Australia; and Freetown, Sierra Leone, have appointed \u201cheat officers,\u201d but most rely upon coordination among multiple departments. Rigorous testing can identify where that might break down and how coordination can be improved. Phoenix created a heat department after an exercise revealed that very problem.<\/p>\n

Some of the cities most vulnerable to extreme heat may not have the resources to stage an expensive drill. But Touat said preparedness is not an all-or-nothing affair. Smaller, less costly efforts can still build readiness \u2014 whether by testing communications plans, mapping vulnerable citizens, or practicing how agencies would collaborate during an outage. \u201cDon\u2019t try to have everything at once and to spend too much money to do an exercise of this type,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s better to do five small ones than one big one.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, simulating extreme heat to improve preparedness isn\u2019t enough, and work to decrease temperatures in cities must happen in parallel, Sunderland said. True resilience requires long-term changes that cool cities and slow climate change itself.<\/p>\n

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Even though these simulations have their limits and can come with a hefty price tag, many cities still see their appeal.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In Taiwan, they are expanding beyond cities. The country staged a tabletop exercise last year and plans a live simulation in July to test coordination within cities and between national officials. The goal is to test whether national and local agencies can effectively work together, said Ken-Mu Chang, the deputy director general of the country\u2019s Climate Change Administration.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The tabletop exercise and role-playing scenario will focus on managing the health impacts of a days-long 104-degree F (40-degree C) heat wave \u2014 the kind of prolonged heat that can overwhelm hospitals and power systems. One challenge, Chang said, is designing an exercise that feels realistic enough to be useful without creating unnecessary public anxiety.<\/p>\n

After last year\u2019s trial run, officials realized that much of the exercise focused on agencies explaining existing plans, rather than showing how they\u2019d respond to a crisis. \u201cWe want to make those gaps more visible and more concrete,\u201d Chang said. \u201cWe want agencies not only to explain what they have, but also to identify what is still missing under a more extreme situation.\u201d<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Barcelona, Spain is adapting the model Komit\u00e8s helped develop.<\/p>\n

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Barcelona has created more shaded areas throughout the city to protect people from increasingly dangerous heat. Courtesy of Barcelona City Hall<\/cite><\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

The Catalan city faces growing urgency to prepare for a hotter future. The Mediterranean basin is warming 20 percent faster than the global average, making it one of the continent\u2019s climate hot spots. Barcelona is among the European cities expected to see the greatest number of heat-related deaths by the end of the century.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Given that future, city officials want to develop plans to protect infrastructure, build a registry of vulnerable residents, and improve coordination. \u201cIt\u2019s not easy when there\u2019s so many actors and it\u2019s not easy when the impacts are on so many different levels,\u201d said Irma Ventayol, who leads Barcelona\u2019s climate change department and is overseeing the simulation.<\/p>\n

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Barcelona\u2019s Heat Plan 2025-2035 calls for the continued expansion of green infrastructure and shaded areas in public schools and playgrounds. Courtesy of Barcelona City Hall<\/cite><\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

\u201cCan we cope with waste management at 40 degrees C or 50 degrees C? Are the trucks prepared? Maybe they are, but no one has checked, so we need to ask those questions sooner rather than later,\u201d Ventayol said. She also sees media coverage of the event as an opportunity to raise awareness among Barcelona\u2019s nearly 2 million residents.<\/p>\n

Beyond protecting the city, she hopes the exercise can help others. \u201cI\u2019d like to have a protocol that can serve other cities too, a scalable methodology that other cities can take and replicate, even for other impacts such as floods,\u201d Ventayol said.<\/p>\n

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In Paris, the simulation \u2014 which inspired a flooding exercise that took place in October \u2014 produced 50 recommendations later folded into the city\u2019s 2024\u20132030 Climate Action Plan. Some are now underway, including insulating thousands of homes and replacing asphalt parking spaces with trees; it planted 15,000 last winter alone. Even the three bathing spots along the Seine River that opened with a splash during last year\u2019s Olympics are part of a broader effort to help residents stay cool.<\/p>\n

Komit\u00e8s is being peppered with questions from others eager to launch similar exercises. All of the lessons for the simulation were compiled into two public documents: a guide to running a heat simulation of this scale and a report detailing what organizers learned. \u201cEverything we did is already on the internet so you\u2019re already one step ahead,\u201d said Touat at Crisotech.<\/p>\n

The biggest surprise to come out of the exercise had nothing to do with infrastructure resilience or cooperation among departments. What shocked Komit\u00e8s the most was how unprepared Parisians are for extreme heat.<\/p>\n

The realization prompted what may be the city\u2019s most important adaptation effort yet: preparing citizens, not just officials. In March, Paris opened its first Campus of Resilience with the civil protection agency and fire department. The center will host training sessions, smaller simulations, and public workshops open to all residents. \u201cWe need to talk with Parisians,\u201d Komit\u00e8s said. \u201cTo inform them, to prepare them.\u201d<\/p>\n

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