\n
T<\/span>he Earth is getting hotter. Conflicts are raging, in the Middle East and Ukraine, each increasing the chance of nuclear war. AI is infiltrating almost every aspect of our lives, despite its unpredictability and tendency to hallucinate. Scientists, tinkering in labs, risk introducing new, deadly pathogens, more destructive than Covid. Our pandemic response preparedness has weakened. The Doomsday Clock \u2013 a large, quarter clock with no numbers, keeps ticking, counting down the seconds until the apocalypse. Tick. Tick. Tick. In January, we reached 85 seconds to midnight. Experts believe humanity has never stood so close to the brink.<\/p>\n\u201cWhat we have seen is a slow almost sleepwalk into increasing dangers over the last decade. And we see these problems growing. We see science advancing at a rate that defies our ability to understand it, much less control it,\u201d says Alexandra Bell, CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the organisation that sets the Doomsday Clock. She speaks of the \u201ccomplete failure in leadership\u201d in the US and other countries, which are doing little to address global, catastrophic threats, even as they feed into one another. Climate change increases global conflict, for instance, and the incorporation of AI into nuclear decision-making is, frankly, terrifying.<\/p>\nAlexandra Bell at home in Washington DC.<\/span> Photograph: Stephen Voss\/The Guardian<\/figcaption><\/figure>\ndouble quotation mark<\/title><path d=\"M5.255 0h4.75c-.572 4.53-1.077 8.972-1.297 13.941H0C.792 9.104 2.44 4.53 5.255 0Zm11.061 0H21c-.506 4.53-1.077 8.972-1.297 13.941h-8.686c.902-4.837 2.485-9.411 5.3-13.941Z\"\/><\/svg><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"dcr-zzndwp\"><p>The more weapons that exist, for longer periods of time, the more likely it is that something will go wrong<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/aside>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Bell speaks over video call from her office in Washington DC, which is decorated with a huge world map, Day of the Dead cushions and a framed print of Barbie superimposed on to a mushroom cloud \u2013 a gift from a colleague in response to the Barbenheimer phenomenon, because in this field it helps to have a sense of humour.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Bell, who has spent much of her career working on nuclear arms control, believes that because nuclear bombs have not been used since 1945, the public has developed a false sense of security. We don\u2019t like to contemplate the role played by luck. \u201cWe\u2019ve been lucky, because the odds are not in our favour. The more weapons that exist, for longer, the more likely it is something will go wrong,\u201d she says \u2013 though she\u2019s quick to add that diplomatic disarmament and peace-making efforts also played a big role.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The Doomsday Clock was established in 1947 in response to the threat of nuclear war, by a group of Manhattan Project nuclear scientists who wanted to warn the public and politicians of the dangers, the destruction they had helped unleash on humankind. The time is usually set annually \u2013 though the setters say if events warrant it, they can change it more frequently. They are members of the Bulletin\u2019s science and security board, a group of leading scientists, academics and diplomats who aim, each year, to reach a consensus on where to set the clock\u2019s hands.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The Doomsday Clock is a symbol; it distils complicated conversations about existential threats into something measurable and easy to grasp. It is a wake-up call, designed to prompt leaders and citizens to take action to stop humankind from destroying itself. It has become a cultural icon. On the Bulletin\u2019s website, you can download a playlist of songs inspired by the clock, from the Clash, Pink Floyd and the Who to, more recently, Bright Eyes, Linkin Park, Hozier and Bastille.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">But can the Doomsday Clock help humanity buy itself more time \u2013 and, if so, how? And what can the people who set it teach us about how to think about, and respond to, the risk of global catastrophe?<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"1947-the-first-clock-is-set-its-seven-minutes-to-midnight\" class=\"dcr-12ibh7f\"><strong>1947: The first clock is set<\/strong><strong>. It\u2019s <\/strong><strong>seven minutes to\u00a0midnight<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">In the aftermath of the US bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, many nuclear scientists felt deep shame and guilt over their role in creating the world\u2019s most deadly weapons. That year, a group of 200 scientists connected to the University of Chicago\u2019s cryptically named Met Lab, which had been tasked with studying the structure of uranium, formed an organisation called the Atomic Scientists of Chicago to help inform the public of the risks posed by nuclear energy. The group published its first bulletin, a print newsletter, in December 1945, calling on the American people to \u201cwork unceasingly for the establishment of international control of atomic weapons\u201d and warning that \u201call we can gain in wealth, economic security or improved health, will be useless if our nation is to live with the continuous dread of sudden annihilation\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">As the organisation expanded to include other Manhattan Project scientists, it dropped \u201cChicago\u201d from its name and turned the bulletin into a magazine. J Robert Oppenheimer and Albert Einstein were among its early contributors. The scientists understood that, with nuclear energy, humankind had acquired the power to destroy itself. They predicted, correctly, that as science advanced it would uncover new, potentially apocalyptic technologies, and it was critical that the public was properly informed about emerging risks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The clock itself was a happy accident. It was created by Martyl Langsdorf, an artist and the wife of a Manhattan Project physicist, who was hired in 1947 to design a new cover for the magazine. A clock seemed to her a good way to symbolise scientists\u2019 sense of urgency, and she set it at seven minutes to midnight, simply because it looked good on the page.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"94cea80d-7fa1-472e-94bc-4695384f698e\" data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement\" class=\"dcr-173mewl\"><figcaption data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"dcr-fd61eq\"><span class=\"dcr-1inf02i\"><svg width=\"18\" height=\"13\" viewbox=\"0 0 18 13\"><path d=\"M18 3.5v8l-1.5 1.5h-15l-1.5-1.5v-8l1.5-1.5h3.5l2-2h4l2 2h3.5l1.5 1.5zm-9 7.5c1.9 0 3.5-1.6 3.5-3.5s-1.6-3.5-3.5-3.5-3.5 1.6-3.5 3.5 1.6 3.5 3.5 3.5z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"dcr-1qvd3m6\">Eugene Rabinowitch (right), who edited the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, set the time of the Doomsday Clock for three decades. He is pictured here in 1954.<\/span> Photograph: thebulletin.org<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">For the next three decades, the time was set by Eugene Rabinowitch, a former Met Lab biophysicist who edited the Bulletin. A 1960s Time magazine profile describes him as a short man with a \u201cjaunty blue beret\u201d and an \u201cineffaceably cheerful smile\u201d who \u201cbears small resemblance to a prophet of doom\u201d, but Rabinowitch was evidently haunted by the role he had played in developing the bomb. He said he had wondered, in the lead-up to Hiroshima, if he should leak news of an impending nuclear attack on Japan to the press. In 1971, he told the New York Times he would have been right to do so.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"1949-the-clock-moves-its-three-minutes-to-midnight\" class=\"dcr-12ibh7f\"><strong>1949: The clock <\/strong><strong>moves. It\u2019s three minutes to\u00a0midnight<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">In 1949, the Soviet Union successfully conducted its\u00a0first\u00a0nuclear test, and the nuclear arms race began.\u00a0Rabinowitch decided to move the clock\u2019s hands\u00a0for the first time, from seven to three minutes to midnight. Scientists are not \u201cintent on creating public hysteria\u201d, he wrote in an editorial accompanying the\u00a0change, \u201cwe do not advise Americans that doomsday\u00a0is near and that they can expect atomic bombs to start\u00a0falling on their heads a month or a year\u00a0from now; but we think they have reason to be deeply alarmed\u00a0and\u00a0to be prepared for grave decisions.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure id=\"8067cf94-6997-47f3-bffb-0f9ba9c1a8c7\" data-spacefinder-role=\"thumbnail\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement\" class=\"dcr-13rnsx0\"><figcaption data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"dcr-fd61eq\"><span class=\"dcr-1inf02i\"><svg width=\"18\" height=\"13\" viewbox=\"0 0 18 13\"><path d=\"M18 3.5v8l-1.5 1.5h-15l-1.5-1.5v-8l1.5-1.5h3.5l2-2h4l2 2h3.5l1.5 1.5zm-9 7.5c1.9 0 3.5-1.6 3.5-3.5s-1.6-3.5-3.5-3.5-3.5 1.6-3.5 3.5 1.6 3.5 3.5 3.5z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"dcr-1qvd3m6\">A 1949 issue of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.<\/span> Photograph: thebulletin.org<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">In the following years, Rabinowitch moved his clock sporadically, in response to events. He changed the time to two minutes to midnight in 1953, following the development of the hydrogen bomb, and then back to seven minutes to midnight in 1960, to reflect increased cooperation between cold war powers. The 1962 Cuban missile crisis \u2013 the 13 days when humanity came closest to nuclear annihilation \u2013 took place between issues of the Bulletin and didn\u2019t prompt an immediate clock change. Instead, Rabinowitch pushed it back to 12 minutes to midnight the following year, in response to the passing of the Partial Test Ban Treaty. He moved the clock hands several more times, but in 1972 it was back at 12 minutes, after the US and USSR committed to reducing ballistic missiles. Rabinowitch died in 1973, and from then on the clock was set by committee.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"1991-the-cold-war-ends-its-17-minutes-to-midnight\" class=\"dcr-12ibh7f\"><strong>1991: The cold war ends. It\u2019s 17 minutes to midnight<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">The furthest we have been from midnight was at the end of the cold war. The Bulletin\u2019s board of directors set the Doomsday Clock at 17 minutes to midnight and argued that \u201cthe world has entered a new era\u201d. Humankind had made more progress in reducing the risk of nuclear warfare than its founders had originally thought possible: the initial design of the clock did not allow the hand to go back further than 15 minutes.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"39e888c1-0b5e-4d5f-b10d-fd0714bcc39e\" data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement\" class=\"dcr-173mewl\"><figcaption data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"dcr-fd61eq\"><span class=\"dcr-1inf02i\"><svg width=\"18\" height=\"13\" viewbox=\"0 0 18 13\"><path d=\"M18 3.5v8l-1.5 1.5h-15l-1.5-1.5v-8l1.5-1.5h3.5l2-2h4l2 2h3.5l1.5 1.5zm-9 7.5c1.9 0 3.5-1.6 3.5-3.5s-1.6-3.5-3.5-3.5-3.5 1.6-3.5 3.5 1.6 3.5 3.5 3.5z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"dcr-1qvd3m6\">Dr Leonard Rieser, chairman of the Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, moves the hand of the Doomsday Clock back to 17 minutes before midnight, 1991. <\/span> Photograph: Chicago Tribune\/TNS<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Throughout the 90s and early noughties, the Bulletin struggled financially. The anxieties shared by its founders appeared \u2013 briefly \u2013 to belong to an earlier era. But history came roaring back, and the clock kept ticking.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"2007-a-modern-doomsday-clock-its-five-minutes-to-midnight\" class=\"dcr-12ibh7f\"><strong>2007: A modern <\/strong><strong>Doomsday<\/strong><strong> Clock. It\u2019s five minutes to\u00a0midnight<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">In 2005, Kennette Benedict was appointed the \u00adBulletin\u2019s executive director and charged with turning the struggling magazine around. Benedict, an academic, had worked for the MacArthur Foundation (the organisation best known for its \u201cgenius grants\u201d) for many years, and she knew many of the Bulletin\u2019s founding members. At the foundation, she had worked with Rabinowitch\u2019s son, Victor, and Ruth Adams, Rabinowitch\u2019s research assistant, who went on to become editor of the Bulletin. She used to attend the artist Langsdorf\u2019s legendary cocktail parties.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Until then, the Doomsday Clock was updated with little fanfare. Benedict recognised that it could become the magazine\u2019s most powerful public communications tool. In 2007, she held a major press conference to mark the decision to move the clock from seven to five minutes to midnight, in response to North Korea\u2019s nuclear tests, Iran\u2019s atomic ambitions, and the rising threat of climate change. She roped in high-profile scientists, including Stephen Hawking and Martin Rees, to take part. \u201cIt made a huge splash,\u201d she recalls. \u201cPeople were hungry for this. They wanted to know.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.NewsletterSignupBlockElement\" class=\"dcr-173mewl\"><gu-island name=\"EmailSignUpWrapper\" priority=\"feature\" deferuntil=\"visible\" props=\"{"index":26,"listId":6016,"identityName":"inside-saturday","category":"article-based","description":"The only way to get a look behind the scenes of the Saturday magazine. Sign up to get the inside story from our top writers as well as all the must-read articles and columns, delivered to your inbox every weekend.","name":"Inside Saturday","frequency":"Weekly","successDescription":"We'll send you Inside Saturday every weekend","theme":"lifestyle","illustrationSquare":"https:\/\/media.guim.co.uk\/8b426d79fd6bcd67008b93835a38c8082c03c918\/2254_0_2335_2336\/2335.jpg","idApiUrl":"https:\/\/idapi.theguardian.com","hideNewsletterSignupComponentForSubscribers":true,"showNewNewsletterSignupCard":true}\"\/><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"5671e138-13ea-4447-a12d-9a2dbf681ab1\" data-spacefinder-role=\"thumbnail\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement\" class=\"dcr-13rnsx0\">\n<div id=\"\" class=\"dcr-1t8m8f2\"><picture class=\"dcr-evn1e9\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/0e7737f30f85850310902209a702a2d60d01c368\/58_0_464_580\/master\/464.jpg?width=140&dpr=2&s=none&crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 740px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-width: 740px) and (min-resolution: 120dpi)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/0e7737f30f85850310902209a702a2d60d01c368\/58_0_464_580\/master\/464.jpg?width=140&dpr=1&s=none&crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 740px)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/0e7737f30f85850310902209a702a2d60d01c368\/58_0_464_580\/master\/464.jpg?width=120&dpr=2&s=none&crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 320px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-width: 320px) and (min-resolution: 120dpi)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/0e7737f30f85850310902209a702a2d60d01c368\/58_0_464_580\/master\/464.jpg?width=120&dpr=1&s=none&crop=none\" media=\"(min-width: 320px)\"\/><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Portrait of Kennette Benedict.\" src=\"https:\/\/i.guim.co.uk\/img\/media\/0e7737f30f85850310902209a702a2d60d01c368\/58_0_464_580\/master\/464.jpg?width=120&dpr=1&s=none&crop=none\" width=\"120\" height=\"150\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"dcr-evn1e9\"\/><\/picture><\/div><figcaption data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"dcr-fd61eq\"><span class=\"dcr-1inf02i\"><svg width=\"18\" height=\"13\" viewbox=\"0 0 18 13\"><path d=\"M18 3.5v8l-1.5 1.5h-15l-1.5-1.5v-8l1.5-1.5h3.5l2-2h4l2 2h3.5l1.5 1.5zm-9 7.5c1.9 0 3.5-1.6 3.5-3.5s-1.6-3.5-3.5-3.5-3.5 1.6-3.5 3.5 1.6 3.5 3.5 3.5z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"dcr-1qvd3m6\">Kennette Benedict.<\/span> Photograph: thebulletin.org<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Benedict turned the clock-setting, and the press conference, into an annual event. She hired the renowned designer Michael Bierut to update the design of the clock, which became the Bulletin\u2019s logo. And, most controversially, she broadened its scope. From now on, the Bulletin\u2019s science and security board would not only factor in the risk of nuclear meltdown but also consider other human-made threats, such as climate change and disruptive technologies. Critics accused her of \u201cdiluting\u201d the Bulletin\u2019s message, and the clock-setter\u2019s debates grew more complicated and heated. Benedict recalls one scientist arguing that the irreversible consequences of climate change were so catastrophic that midnight had already been passed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cAll science and technology can be used for good or ill. They\u2019re dual use. Starting with fire: it can heat our homes and burn down our houses,\u201d Benedict tells me, when we meet in her apartment in downtown Chicago. The Bulletin\u2019s founders recognised as much. Rabinowitch spoke of the \u201cPandora\u2019s box of modern science\u201d. The modern Doomsday Clock aims to encourage better protections against the dangers that come with scientific progress. The first step to action is awareness, and true awareness is not only knowledge but feeling.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">On a clearer day, you can see all the way from Benedict\u2019s apartment to the University of Chicago, where she now teaches a course on nuclear policy. At the beginning of each course, she asks her students to read John Hersey\u2019s Hiroshima, an account of the bombing told through the stories of its survivors. She tells her students: \u201cMy basic philosophy is that the truth shall set you free. And I\u2019m going to impart as much as I can. But first, it\u2019s going to make you miserable.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">And yet, like many of the people I speak to, Benedict says her work on the Doomsday Clock has left her optimistic. She is reminded that humankind has pulled itself away from the edge before. \u201cThe history of nuclear weapons, at least since the end of the cold war, is actually pretty hopeful: we used to have 70,000 nuclear weapons and now we have 10,000 or 12,000. That\u2019s proof of concept, right?\u201d she observes.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"2020-the-clock-starts-counting-in-seconds-its-100-seconds-to-midnight\" class=\"dcr-12ibh7f\"><strong>2020: The clock starts counting in seconds. It\u2019s\u00a0100\u00a0seconds to midnight<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Six years ago, the Doomsday Clock moved from two minutes to 100 seconds to midnight. The Bulletin pointed to insufficient arms control, lack of action on climate change, the rise in misinformation and the threats posed by AI. At the time, Rachel Bronson, Benedict\u2019s successor, compared the clock\u2019s new time to the two-minute warning in American football matches: \u201cThe world has entered the realm of the two-minute warning, a period when danger is high and the margin for error is low.\u201d The doomsday time has remained so close to midnight that it has been counted in seconds ever since.<\/p>\n<aside data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-gu-name=\"pullquote\" class=\"dcr-nyoej5\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 22 14\" style=\"fill:var(--pullquote-icon)\" class=\"dcr-scql1j\"><title>double quotation mark<\/title><path d=\"M5.255 0h4.75c-.572 4.53-1.077 8.972-1.297 13.941H0C.792 9.104 2.44 4.53 5.255 0Zm11.061 0H21c-.506 4.53-1.077 8.972-1.297 13.941h-8.686c.902-4.837 2.485-9.411 5.3-13.941Z\"\/><\/svg><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"dcr-zzndwp\"><p>The question often is: how do you go to work every day? <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/aside>\n<figure id=\"12b59b8d-59e7-4d26-b8c1-553d956b8a84\" data-spacefinder-role=\"thumbnail\" data-spacefinder-type=\"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.ImageBlockElement\" class=\"dcr-13rnsx0\"><figcaption data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" class=\"dcr-fd61eq\"><span class=\"dcr-1inf02i\"><svg width=\"18\" height=\"13\" viewbox=\"0 0 18 13\"><path d=\"M18 3.5v8l-1.5 1.5h-15l-1.5-1.5v-8l1.5-1.5h3.5l2-2h4l2 2h3.5l1.5 1.5zm-9 7.5c1.9 0 3.5-1.6 3.5-3.5s-1.6-3.5-3.5-3.5-3.5 1.6-3.5 3.5 1.6 3.5 3.5 3.5z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"dcr-1qvd3m6\">Rachel Bronson.<\/span> Photograph: thebulletin.org<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cThe question often is: how do you go to work every day?\u201d Bronson says, when we meet for coffee in Chicago, but her time heading up the Bulletin didn\u2019t leave her despairing. \u201cI think, like anything, the more involved you are, the more optimistic you can be, only to know that there\u2019s really good people working on these issues, and fabulous innovations under way.\u201d Bronson noticed during the regular science and security board briefings that people were always more anxious about the dangers they hadn\u2019t been studying. \u201cWhatever your expertise is, you think someone else\u2019s is scarier, in part because\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0always scarier when it\u2019s unknown,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">I observed while working on this article how easy it is to disengage from discussions about how the world ends. Apocalyptic scenarios are so frightening that it can feel easier to ignore them, or to quickly bury your knowledge and anxiety somewhere unreachable. But those who have spent their careers studying doomsday futures seem to derive courage from facing down the terrifying facts, from thinking about them long enough that you can start to see potential solutions. It\u2019s another argument, if you need it, against the head-in-sand approach.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">There are, understandably, limits to Bronson\u2019s \u00adoptimism. She speaks of how scientists, and the public, keep being let down by politicians, who fail to take decisive action or follow expert advice. \u201cI\u2019m so bullish on the science, but I\u2019m so pessimistic on the politics,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"2026-inching-to-doomsday-its-85-seconds-to-midnight\" class=\"dcr-12ibh7f\"><strong>2026<\/strong>:<strong> Inching to doomsday. It\u2019s 85 seconds to\u00a0midnight<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">In January, the clock was set to 85 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been. Within four weeks, the AI expert Gary Marcus argued on the Bulletin\u2019s website that humanity was already \u201csignificantly closer to the brink\u201d, after a showdown between AI developer Anthropic and the White House revealed Trump\u2019s determination to have unrestricted military access to AI. A recent study found that in simulated war games, leading AIs from OpenAI, Anthropic and Google opted to use nuclear weapons 95% of the time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Two days later, the US and Israel began bombing Iran, raising the risk of nuclear war. \u201cFurther escalation or expansion of the conflict could lead to actions driven by miscalculation, misperception or madness, as President Kennedy once said,\u201d warned Alexandra Bell, who succeeded Bronson as president of the Bulletin in 2025. From the start, she worried about the lack of a plan to secure Iran\u2019s nuclear materials, and that other countries would conclude that having nuclear weapons is the only way to maintain their security.<\/p>\n<aside data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-gu-name=\"pullquote\" class=\"dcr-nyoej5\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 22 14\" style=\"fill:var(--pullquote-icon)\" class=\"dcr-scql1j\"><title>double quotation mark<\/title><path d=\"M5.255 0h4.75c-.572 4.53-1.077 8.972-1.297 13.941H0C.792 9.104 2.44 4.53 5.255 0Zm11.061 0H21c-.506 4.53-1.077 8.972-1.297 13.941h-8.686c.902-4.837 2.485-9.411 5.3-13.941Z\"\/><\/svg><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"dcr-zzndwp\"><p>If we get the bigger issues wrong \u2013 particularly if we get the nuclear problem wrong \u2013 nothing else matters <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/aside>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">I ask Bell about the roots of her work. As a child, growing up in small-town North Carolina, she remembers becoming very concerned about the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska in 1989, and she wrote to then US president George H W Bush, accusing him of giving the environmental disaster too little attention. She received a reply from the White House that read something like \u201cthanks for your letter, keep reading books\u201d. \u201cAnd I was like, \u2018This is unacceptable!\u2019 That lack of response has really driven me over the years,\u201d she says. Many people feel powerless in the face of big, geopolitical problems such as climate change or nuclear war, but Bell believes they underestimate themselves.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">\u201cI can assure you, elected leaders care about what their constituents call them about. So, the idea that people don\u2019t have agency is not true,\u201d Bell says. The\u00a0history of nuclear arms control was shaped by public action, and only public pressure will encourage global leaders to act decisively and collaboratively to address the threats facing mankind. Bell says she understands that voters have many other pressing concerns, over the cost of living, or healthcare or crime. But in an\u00a0almost-perfect echo of the Bulletin\u2019s first public statement she says: \u201cThe message we\u2019re trying to get out is you\u2019re going to have to care about these bigger issues, too. Because if we get them wrong \u2013 particularly if we get the nuclear problem wrong \u2013 nothing else matters.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"the-future-learning-to-think-in-atomic-time\" class=\"dcr-12ibh7f\"><strong>The future: Learning to think in atomic time<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">One wet Chicago evening, I meet Daniel Holz, the University of Chicago astrophysicist who is the chair of the Bulletin\u2019s science and security board. The board meets at least twice a year and is in regular contact in between; Holz has the tricky job of ensuring that the experts can reach agreement on where to set the clock. He feels that with each passing year the work feels more urgent. One senses the work can become all-consuming. He booked a family holiday in Japan for the spring \u2013 and found himself including official meetings in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">Among certain academic and Silicon Valley doomsayers it has become popular in recent years to speak of ones p(doom) value, the probability one assigns to the world ending. Most people find it hard to think in probabilistic terms, however, and the clock provides a simpler, more symbolic way to express the dangers facing humankind. Because it is a symbol rather than a scientific measurement, Holz says the clock-setters need to consider the psychology of how the time will be interpreted. \u201cIf people feel powerless and so petrified that they can\u2019t engage, then we\u2019re making things worse. That\u2019s something I think about a lot,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<aside data-spacefinder-role=\"inline\" data-gu-name=\"pullquote\" class=\"dcr-nyoej5\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 22 14\" style=\"fill:var(--pullquote-icon)\" class=\"dcr-scql1j\"><title>double quotation mark<\/title><path d=\"M5.255 0h4.75c-.572 4.53-1.077 8.972-1.297 13.941H0C.792 9.104 2.44 4.53 5.255 0Zm11.061 0H21c-.506 4.53-1.077 8.972-1.297 13.941h-8.686c.902-4.837 2.485-9.411 5.3-13.941Z\"\/><\/svg><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"dcr-zzndwp\"><p>Earth is this tiny, irrelevant speck. If we blow ourselves up, the universe is not going to save us. Which means it\u2019s up to us, right?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/aside>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">It strikes me then that the clock\u2019s usefulness lies partly in its ability to circumvent our deepest fears and the limits of our imagination. You can track the clock\u2019s hands and feel moved to action, even if you find it hard to truly contemplate the end of the world. The scenarios the Bulletin\u2019s board discuss \u2013 a nuclear winter, the lab\u00a0leak that kills all biological life \u2013 can be so awful that most people need help to accept they could truly happen. They need to learn how to shift their perspective. Holz says that his day job, studying black holes, has helped him grasp the importance of working on existential risk. \u201cCosmology is very good at giving\u00a0perspective. When you study this stuff, you\u00a0definitely get a strong sense of how insignificant we are here on Earth, which sounds bad but is actually very empowering. The timescales, the length scales, are so vast, and here we are, this super tiny, little irrelevant speck. You quickly realise the universe is not going to save us \u2026 If we blow ourselves up, no one will notice or care,\u201d he says. \u201cWhich means it\u2019s up to us, right?\u201d A nuclear winter is about the biggest disaster most humans can imagine \u2013 and yet, from the perspective of the universe it is practically a non-event. \u201cI taught a class yesterday and one of the questions was: if we blow ourselves up in a nuclear war would anyone elsewhere in the galaxy notice? And it actually would be really hard to notice. You\u2019d have to be really close,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">I haven\u2019t mastered the ability to contemplate humanity\u2019s future from a cosmological perspective, but the following morning I meet a scientist who helps shift my personal view. It is a damp, colourless early spring day, and I travel to a suburb of Chicago to meet Dieter Gruen, who in his early 20s worked for the Manhattan Project in Oak Ridge, Tennessee and later joined other scientists in calling for action to protect the world from nuclear conflict. Gruen is 103 years old, still working \u2013 he\u2019s involved in efforts to build more efficient solar panels \u2013 and remarkably spry. His long life lends him an unusual perspective on the political problems of today, and I wonder if (or perhaps hope that) outliving other global crises might make him more sanguine than most. It is a week after the US declared war on Iran. Gruen keeps a copy of the New York Times, the New Yorker and the Bulletin magazine on the side-table next to his leather armchair, and he is sombre. He has this morning read media reports of Iran\u2019s claim to have enriched enough uranium to build around 10 nuclear bombs. Does he agree with the Bulletin that the world is in greater peril than ever? \u201cI feel like I\u2019ve never felt before,\u201d he says gravely. What about during the Cuban missile crisis? \u201cWell, that was pretty bad,\u201d he acknowledges. But somehow this feels worse.<\/p>\n<p class=\"dcr-130mj7b\">What do you think, he asks me then, are you worried? I tell him that while it is not rational, the idea of a nuclear apocalypse is so awful that my brain refuses to hold on to it. Global, existential risks rarely feature on my long\u00a0and neurotic list of daily anxieties. He looks at me\u00a0with some puzzlement. \u201cYes,\u201d he says. \u201cThat\u2019s not\u00a0rational.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Earth is getting hotter. Conflicts are raging, in the Middle East and Ukraine, each increasing the chance of nuclear war. 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