2026 NBA Mock Draft: Adam Finkelstein’s projections for top picks as Sunday’s lottery to determine No. 1 looms

Dybantsa has established himself as the clear-cut favorite to be the number one pick. He’s a polished scorer and shot-creator who also happens to have great positional size, athleticism, and elasticity. He can rise-and-fire in the mid-range area on demand, made huge strides with his rim pressure, gets to the free-throw line in high volume, and is capable, albeit a bit unreliable, from three. He’s even creating for teammates and making reads better than ever before. The defense is the last frontier and while he has physical tools, it’s not yet his point of emphasis.

Darryn Peterson is the second ranked prospect on the CBS Sports Big Board, but if the lottery fails this way I won’t be surprised to see Boozer be Indiana’s pick. He’s the surest thing in this draft. He had a historic high school career, was the college basketball player of the year, and has an extremely high floor with his overlap of physicality, skill, and basketball IQ. There will be questions about whether his creation or upside is on par with Dybantsa and Peterson, but for a team that has hopes to get back to the NBA Finals as soon as next season with Tyrese Haliburton’s return, Boozer’s ability to slide in alongside Ivica Zubac and Pascal Siakam could be too compelling to pass up on.

The Nets are deep into their rebuilding project and still lack a star of the future. Peterson could give him that. While his season at Kansas was full of controversy, he made massive gains with his shooting. Combine that with the playmaking, burst, and physicality we saw when he was completely healthy in high school and you have a prospect who could very well end up being the best player taken from this draft down the road. In Brooklyn, he would be the focal point from day one and the player that the Nets build the rest of their roster around moving forward. Having a big facilitator on the wing like Egor Demin, could also be a nice long-term fit.

The Jazz are done rebuilding and hoping to join the list of contenders in the west next year, so this is potentially their last big swing at the draft for a while. Wilson gives them a prospect with legit star-type outcomes. He’s a high-level athlete with a big-time motor, and has unusual elasticity (or bend) for a player his size. There’s still immense room for progress, both with his perimeter skill and defensive polish. Slot him into a frontline that already includes Jaren Jackson and Lauri Markkanen and Utah would be loaded up front.

The Kings are a franchise in need of a lead guard of the future, and with the 5th pick they’ll have their choice of four one-and-done freshmen. Acuff was the best college player of the bunch and may also be the most prepared to step in and be an offensive focal point in the NBA. He’s a multi-level creator with shooting splits that were off the charts last year at Arkansas and has the passing metrics to match. While he may be maximizing his impact offensively, it’s the defensive end of the floor that is the biggest question, and if Sacramento were to go in a different direction here, that would be the reason.

Ja Morant may still be on the Grizzlies, but that isn’t expected to last, so Memphis is another team that could look for their future point guard. Flemings would provide the Grizz with an elite athlete who can get a piece of the paint on demand, rise up explosively at the rim, get to his pull-up at virtually anytime, and be solid on the defensive end. His swing skill is his shooting. If that holds up, then Flemings has legit star-type outcomes. He also just seems to be a fit for the things Memphis, who has drafted extremely well in recent years, prioritizes.

There is a case to be made that Wagler is the best long-term point guard prospect in this draft. He came out of virtually nowhere to have a huge freshman season and lead Illinois to the Final Four with his combination of skill and feel. He has terrific positional size, which will ultimately allow him to play on and off the ball, and yet he’s still just beginning to fill out his frame. With still so much growth left in front of him, his adjustment to an unprecedented level of competition at Illinois should have required patience, and yet it was seamless. It’s possible that this could be a sign of things to come.

Mikel Brown Jr. is the best available prospect on the board, but Burries may be a better long-term fit alongside Cooper Flagg, particularly if Masai Ujiri is content to keep Kyrie Irving in the fold for the foreseeable future. Burries is a strong and aggressive two-way guard who can get downhill with real force, provide a formidable three-point shooter to stretch the floor, and simultaneously defend his position. Burries is also more physically ready to make the transition to the NBA game than most of the other one-and-done guards in the draft.

The Bulls have hired former Hawks’ senior vice president Bryson Graham as their new Executive Vice-President of Basketball Operations. He takes over a roster that has 10 free agents, needs a new coach, and has only a couple of long-term pieces. Josh Giddey is one such player, and Mikel Brown Jr. might be a great fit alongside him. Brown is incredibly talented with the ball, has shooting potential that vastly exceeds his Louisville numbers, and would complement Giddey’s playmaking beautifully, if they could co-exist defensively.

Ament is a fairly polarizing prospect with a potentially wide range on draft night. He’s a late-blooming 6-foot-10 combo-forward with touch, natural skill, and fluidity. He needs to get stronger and more assertive in order to address the vast inconsistencies we saw this year, but overall, he’s still a prospect who has made drastic improvements in recent years and has a wealth of untapped potential.

Mara kept getting better as the college season went on and ultimately led Michigan to a national championship. At 7-foot-3, he’s a giant, even by NBA standards, and a tremendous rim protector. He’s also got sneaky mobility, good hands, and real passing ability that would make him all the more intriguing in Golden State’s system.

Lendeborg is one of the more versatile two-way players, and specifically defenders, in this class. At 6-foot-9 with a 7-foot-4 wingspan, he often guarded opposing point guards this year at Michigan, and simultaneously improved his shooting to 37.2% from behind the arc. That alone has the makings of a terrific role player, but Lendeborg is also very unselfish and a terrific passer.

Philon is one of the more gifted shot creators in this draft class. The focal point of opposing SEC defenses every night, Philon still produced 50/40/80 shooting splits and impressive offensive counting stats. We also know from his freshman year at Alabama that he’s capable of being a better defender than we saw this year. With Miami’s backcourt on the verge of some real potential change, they should have a role to plug Philon into from day one.

Peat is another very polarizing prospect in this draft. A strong, physical four-man loaded with intangibles, Peat can finish, rebound, short-roll, get downhill, and even play-make a bit, but he doesn’t shoot — at all. Peat was pivotal to Arizona’s Big 12 championship and Final Four run, and in Charlotte, he could add more of the same type of winning DNA they prioritized and benefited from in last year’s draft.

The Bulls could use a shooting, ideally 3-and-D, wing here, but there just aren’t many available. They’ve used a lot of draft capital on athletic forwards in recent years, but Steinbach is cut from a different cloth. He’s skilled, smart, has elite hands, is a high-volume rebounder, and capable of playing both the four and the five with the NBA trending back towards more size in the frontcourt.

Quaintance played only four games at Kentucky this year while recovering from a torn ACL. The prior year at Arizona State, he was a defensive monster before going down with the injury. He’s long, powerful, and violently athletic at the rim. Essentially, he’s a totally different type of big man from Zach Edey, and that may be exactly why he’d be such an intriguing complement in Memphis’ rotation.

Johnson is a tough and rugged prospect who is willing to do all the dirty work. He is capable of sliding his feet and being versatile defensively. He can also knock down open threes. That type of two-way versatility, all while buying into a complementary role, makes him an ideal role player. Coming off a national championship at Michigan, he’d be an ideal fit for the defending NBA champs.

It’s very possible the Hornets go big here, but if not, it would make sense to solidify the backcourt. Stirtz is a highly skilled true point guard with an elite feel for the game. He’s not an overwhelming athlete or defender, but he’s ultra reliable, always in the right spots, and has an understanding of the game beyond his years. The bottom line is his DNA is similar to what Charlotte prioritized in last year’s draft.

Anderson is a highly skilled lead guard who is both a big-time shooter of the basketball and a maestro in the pick-and-roll. There are questions about how he’ll adapt physically and defensively, but his offense is worth betting on, especially for a Toronto team that lacks anything comparable at the point.

It’s very possible Lopez goes higher than this. He currently ranks No. 16 overall on the CBS Sports Big Board and will start to get consideration as early as the late lottery. The Mexican native played with the New Zealand Breakers in the NBL Next Stars program this year and made really nice strides. He’s a hard-playing, physical presence who pressures the rim and competes on both ends.

After playing a total of 18 games in the first two years of his college career, Carr exploded this season for Baylor while putting up 49/37/80 shooting. More impressive for Carr is that he still has vast untapped potential when you combine his shot-making with explosive leaping ability and very long arms. He’ll need some time to fill out his frame and mature physically, but there’s clear upside here.

Cenac’s tools are elite. He has the size of an NBA center with long arms and good athleticism. He has the mobility to slide laterally, and some developing face-up skill and shooting potential. Cenac asserted himself on the glass this year and answered most of the questions about his motor. Still, the pieces don’t always come all the way together for Cenac, but at this point in the draft, for a Sixers team that needs help up front, he’s definitely worth the risk.

Veesaar had a breakout year at North Carolina and has one of the best overlaps of size and skill in this draft. Veesaar is a stretch-five who shoots it with ease to the arc, can play out of dribble hand-offs, pass, and still space the floor vertically. He is a great chess piece to have offensively.  The questions are more on the defensive end and with his rebounding, but he’ll be well supported in those areas in Atlanta.

Bidunga is the No. 1-ranked prospect in the transfer portal and already committed to Louisville for a major payday that would eclipse the salary allotted for a late first-round pick. Chances are he’s playing for the Cardinals next year, but if something unexpected happens and he stays in the draft, he would make a lot of sense here. Bidunga is a big-time athlete, tremendously versatile defender, rim-runner, and explosive lob threat.

Chinyelu is another prospect who may be headed back to college and Gainesville next year, but is ready to impact an NBA game defensively right now. At 6-foot-10 with a nearly 7-foot-8 wingspan, Chinyelu is freakishly long, just as powerful, and yet totally switchable with great recoverability. The offense is limited, but it has made steady strides. The bottom line is he’s probably a Gator next year, but the Lakers could use him, at least on one end of the floor.

More so than any freshman in the country, Ebuka exceeded expectations at Stanford during the 2025-26 season. His speed and ability to get a piece of the paint are his calling cards, but the shooting continued to tick up throughout the course of the season. Ebuka lacks overwhelming size, strength, or vertical explosiveness, and a return to school is reportedly also on the table.

Another prospect who could elect to return to school, Allen is a versatile wing who has an overlap of skill and toughness. He’s a good handler, passer, potentially better shooter than his numbers indicate, and a big-time wing rebounder. He’s not quite as polished as advertised on the defensive end of the floor just yet, but there’s some innate competitiveness that should ultimately translate.

Swain is a polarizing prospect. At 6-foot-7, he can play off the bounce, come off ball-screens, pressure the paint, and create for others. He’s just a 34% three-point shooter, though, and only 29% for his career. Consequently, some see a potential jumbo initiator who can evolve into a big guard, while others a non-shooting wing who won’t have off-ball gravity at the next level. If Minnesota subscribes to the former, he could be a steal here.

Graves is an analytic darling who has elite BPM metrics and a rare overlap of defensive playmaking, passing, ball-security, and offensive rebounding. In other words, he combines physicality with elite feel and instincts on both ends of the court. He also has great hands and can stretch the floor, but is viewed as more of a role player deluxe than a primary creator or scorer.

Floor spacing for Cooper Flagg with a former Duke teammate seems to make a lot of sense. Evans showed an ability to make the type of quick-release movement threes that translate to the NBA level. In other words, he’s not just someone who stands in the corner. He’s someone Jason Kidd can run plays for. He’s also not totally one-dimensional, as he started to diversify his game this year, but still needs to build up his body.